Buying & selling · · 10 min read
ECB Meeting on 29 October 2026: Rate Hike or Pause? What It Means for Euribor and Mortgages if You Buy or Sell in Madrid
On Thursday 29 October 2026, at 14:15 CET, the ECB announces whether it raises interest rates again or keeps the deposit rate at 2.50%. We explain what is known as of 20 October, what the latest euro area inflation figures say, how Euribor could move, how much the monthly payment on a typical mortgage would change and what to do before and after the meeting if you are buying or selling a home in Madrid.
On Thursday 29 October 2026 the European Central Bank (ECB) decides once again on the price of money in the euro area. At 14:15 Spanish mainland time (CET) it will publish whether it is raising its interest rates again or leaving them unchanged, and at 14:45 the press conference begins, where the reasons are explained. If you are about to take out a mortgage, already have a variable-rate one or are selling a flat in Madrid, it is a date worth marking in your diary.
This article reflects what is known as of 20 October 2026. We do not know what the ECB will decide and we are not going to guess: instead, we use official data to explain what is at stake, what would happen to Euribor and to monthly payments in each scenario, and what to do before and after the 29th.
ECB meeting on 29 October: date, time and what is decided
The ECB's Governing Council, the body that sets monetary policy, meets in Frankfurt on 28 and 29 October, and the second day ends with a press conference. There will be no new economic projections at this meeting: the next ones come with the meeting of 16 and 17 December, the last of 2026.
Three official rates are decided. The one that matters most today is the deposit facility rate, which is what banks earn for leaving their money with the ECB overnight: it sets the price of money in the markets and, through them, Euribor. Raising rates by 25 basis points means raising them by 0.25 percentage points; for example, from 2.50% to 2.75%.
| ECB official rate | From 17-6-2026 | From 16-9-2026 (current) | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deposit facility | 2.25% | 2.50% | What banks earn for depositing money with the ECB; the main reference rate |
| Main refinancing operations | 2.40% | 2.65% | What banks pay for the ECB's weekly loans |
| Marginal lending facility | 2.65% | 2.90% | What banks pay to borrow from the ECB overnight |
Source: ECB, table of key interest rates and monetary policy decisions of 10 September 2026. The two rises in 2026, of 25 basis points each, took effect from 17 June and from 16 September.
Why the ECB raised rates in September and what is being debated now
On 10 September the ECB raised its three rates by 25 basis points, its second rise of the year after June. The reason was inflation: the bank pointed to rising energy prices, which it links to the conflict in the Middle East, and its September projections put average inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, above its 2% target, with growth of only 0.9% this year. As for the next steps, the press conference made clear that the ECB was not taking a view on the direction of the next meeting, and it repeats its usual formula:
…we will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach…
ECB, monetary policy statement of 10 September 2026
In a Reuters poll carried out between 5 and 8 October, 70 of 73 economists expected the ECB to hold the deposit rate at 2.50% on the 29th, and 64 of 73 forecast a 25 basis point rise in December. It is a snapshot of that moment, not a certain forecast. These are the two realistic options:
- Hold at 2.50%: the ECB has already raised rates twice this year, rises take months to feed through, growth is weak and inflation excluding energy and food is much closer to target than the headline rate. Waiting until December would let it decide with fresh projections.
- Raise to 2.75%: headline inflation kept rising in September, energy prices are climbing very fast and the ECB has warned that short-term inflation expectations are elevated. Raising now would aim to stop that spreading to wages and services.
- Either way, the message about December may matter as much as the decision itself: if the press conference opens or closes the door to another rise, Euribor will reflect it in the following days.
What the latest euro area inflation figures say
According to Eurostat, euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September 2026, from 3.2% in August; a year earlier it was 2.2%. Energy prices were 18.9% higher. Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the rate stands at 2.5%. That is the ECB's dilemma: headline inflation is almost two points above target, but much of the push comes from energy. In Spain the figure is higher: the general CPI reached 4.9%, according to the INE (National Statistics Institute) the highest rate since February 2023.
| Indicator | September 2026 | August 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area inflation | 3.8% | 3.2% | Eurostat |
| Euro area excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco | 2.5% | — | Eurostat |
| Spain, harmonised inflation (HICP) | 5.0% | 4.6% | Eurostat and INE |
| Spain, general CPI | 4.9% | 4.3% | INE |
| Spain, core inflation | 3.1% | 2.9% | INE |
Sources: Eurostat, release of 16 October 2026 (final September figure); INE, CPI release of 14 October 2026. The ECB's inflation target is 2% over the medium term.
How the decision reaches Euribor and mortgages
The 12-month Euribor is the rate at which euro area banks lend to each other for twelve months, and it is the index used by most variable-rate mortgages in Spain. It does not wait for the meeting day: it anticipates what the market believes the ECB will do. That is why it had been rising for months before September and why, if the expected happens on the 29th, it may barely move. What really moves it is a surprise. The official September average was 3.247%, compared with 2.172% in September 2025, and the provisional October average is around 3.22%. The official October figure will be published in early November.
With a variable-rate mortgage you pay Euribor plus a fixed margin (diferencial), and the payment is reviewed using the Euribor of the month set in your contract. With a fixed-rate mortgage already signed, the payment does not change, but the rate on new ones depends on long-term market rates; one reference published by the Banco de España, the 5-year IRS (interest rate swap), averaged 3.450% in September. According to the INE, the average rate on home mortgages in July was 3.01%, and 62.3% were signed at a fixed rate, averaging 3.03%. Those loans predate the September rise, so today's offers may be somewhat more expensive.
Example payment: a €250,000 mortgage over 30 years
We take a typical €250,000 mortgage over 30 years, at a variable rate with a 0.80% margin over Euribor. In scenario A, Euribor stays at around today's 3.22% because the market has already priced in whatever the ECB does. In scenario B, it rises a further 25 basis points to 3.47%, for example if the ECB raises rates unexpectedly or signals more rises. This is an illustrative calculation, without discounts, insurance or fees.
| Scenario | Euribor | Rate applied | Monthly payment | Difference from scenario A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference: Euribor a year ago (September 2025) | 2.172% | 2.972% | €1,050.24 | −€146.18 a month |
| A: Euribor stays where it is | 3.22% | 4.02% | €1,196.42 | — |
| B: Euribor rises a further 25 basis points | 3.47% | 4.27% | €1,232.78 | +€36.36 a month (€436.32 a year) |
| Reference: average fixed rate in July 2026 (INE) | — | 3.03% | €1,058.06 | −€138.36 a month |
Our own calculation with constant payments (French amortisation system), 360 instalments and €250,000 of capital. The 0.80% margin is an assumption, not an average figure. Euribor for September 2025: Banco de España; for October 2026: provisional average from euribor.com.es as of 20-10-2026; average fixed rate: INE, July 2026. Illustrative figures.
There are two ways to read this. On the one hand, 25 basis points more means about €36 a month: noticeable, but not enough on its own to change a decision to buy. On the other, the scenario A payment is already about €146 higher than with last year's Euribor. And for sellers there is a third: with the same €1,196 payment, in scenario B the buyer could only borrow about €242,600, some €7,400 less. That is how interest rates find their way into house prices.
What it means if you are buying a home in Madrid
According to the Consejo General del Notariado (General Council of Notaries), 56.1% of home purchases in Spain in July 2026 were financed with a mortgage, and the loan covered on average 71.6% of the price. In the city of Madrid, where a square metre cost €6,458 in September according to idealista, the amount you need to borrow is larger and every tenth of a point of interest weighs more. If you are buying:
- Before the 29th: ask for written offers and, if you have already chosen a property, the FEIN (Ficha Europea de Información Normalizada, the European Standardised Information Sheet), which is the bank's binding offer for the period stated in it. While it is valid, a rate rise does not change its terms. We explain it in “Euribor and mortgages in Spain in 2026”.
- Work out the payment with today's Euribor and with half a point more, and compare fixed, variable and mixed mortgages by their TAE (APR, which includes interest and fees), not just by the first-year rate.
- Do not sign the arras (the deposit contract used to reserve the property) without a financing condition with realistic deadlines. We cover this in “The Arras Contract in Spain in 2026”.
- After the 29th: if Euribor reacts, review any offers that are not binding; if it does not move, there is no reason to rush.
What it means if you are selling a home in Madrid
If more than half of buyers depend on a bank, every rise slightly reduces what they can pay. That is no reason to sell cheaply or take your flat off the market: 25 basis points are small compared with a poorly calculated asking price. But it is a reason to get three things right, which we develop in “When a Flat Sale Falls Through Over the Mortgage in Spain”:
- A price the bank's valuation can support, set using real sales in your area and not the most expensive listing on the portal.
- Buyers who know how they are going to pay: ask before showing the property and give priority to those with a written offer from their bank.
- A contract with clear deadlines for the valuation and the bank's answer, and stating what happens if they are delayed.
What to watch on 29 October and in the following weeks
- At 14:15, the ECB's announcement: whether the deposit rate stays at 2.50% or moves to 2.75%.
- From 14:45, the press conference: whether it leaves the door open or closed to another rise in December.
- Daily Euribor over the following days: whether it moves away from October's provisional 3.22%.
- In early November, the official October average from the Banco de España, which many mortgage reviews will use.
- On 17 December, the last meeting of the year, with new inflation and growth projections.
How we do it at Llavely
We cannot know what the ECB will do, and we are not going to tell you to sell or wait because of a meeting. What we do at Llavely, with more than 35 years in the real estate sector and specialist lawyers, is sell homes in the Comunidad de Madrid (the Madrid region) with everything included: valuation, photos, video, floor plan and virtual tour. We talk to every buyer before the viewing, check their ID and ask how they plan to pay; we carry out the viewings ourselves and you follow everything from your private seller portal. If the buyer needs a mortgage, we put them in touch, free of charge, with a mortgage broker. Buying with Llavely is free.
Our specialist lawyers are with you from start to finish: they review the nota simple (land registry extract showing who owns the property and any charges on it), charges and debts, calculate the taxes that apply, draft the arras and any special clauses where needed, such as a sound financing condition, review the deed and go with you in person to the notary. Payments are always made by bank transfer, never in cash. You only pay if you sell, on the day of the notary signing: 2.5% + VAT of the price, with everything included.
If you are thinking of selling and want to know where your flat stands at today's rates, ask for your free valuation: we give you a price range straight away, then we call you, see the property and fine-tune the price. We reply in English by email, message or phone.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next ECB meeting and what time is the decision announced?
The Governing Council meets on 28 and 29 October 2026. The decision is published on Thursday 29 October at 14:15 CET (Spanish mainland time) and the press conference begins at 14:45. The next monetary policy meeting is on 17 December, with new projections.
Will the ECB raise interest rates on 29 October 2026?
Nobody knows. The ECB decides meeting by meeting based on the data. In a Reuters poll in early October, 70 of 73 economists expected it to hold the deposit rate at 2.50% and 64 of 73 forecast a rise in December. September's 3.8% inflation is the main argument for raising rates now.
What are the ECB's interest rates now?
Since 16 September 2026, the deposit facility rate has been 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate 2.65% and the marginal lending facility rate 2.90%. In 2026 the ECB has raised them twice, in June and in September.
What is Euribor in October 2026?
As of 20 October 2026, the provisional average for the month, over 13 working days, is around 3.22% according to euribor.com.es. The official September average was 3.247%, according to the Banco de España. The official October figure is published in early November.
How much would my mortgage go up if Euribor rises by 25 basis points?
It depends on the capital, the term and the margin. In our illustrative example, a €250,000 mortgage over 30 years at Euribor plus 0.80% would go from about €1,196 a month to about €1,233, roughly €36 more. Your bank must give you the exact calculation at each review.
Does the ECB decision affect a fixed-rate mortgage?
Not a fixed-rate mortgage that has already been signed: the payment stays the same for the life of the loan. It does affect new fixed-rate mortgages, because banks price them according to long-term market rates, which move with expectations about the ECB.
Should I wait for the ECB meeting before selling or buying a flat?
A single meeting rarely justifies changing your plans: 25 basis points move the payment on an average mortgage by a few tens of euros. What does make sense is to be prepared: if you are buying, with written offers from the bank; if you are selling, with a realistic price and buyers who know how they are going to pay.
Sources
- Key ECB interest rates, historical table (European Central Bank, consulted on 20 October 2026)
- Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 10 September 2026 (European Central Bank, PDF)
- Press conference: monetary policy statement with Q&A, Spanish version (European Central Bank, 10 September 2026)
- Schedules for the meetings of the Governing Council and General Council of the ECB (European Central Bank)
- El BCE sube los tipos 25 puntos básicos en septiembre (The ECB raises rates by 25 basis points in September) (Banco de España, 10 September 2026)
- Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area, Euro indicators (Eurostat, 16 October 2026; full PDF copy published by Poder360)
- Euro area and EU September inflation confirmed up at 3.8 per cent (Eunews, 16 October 2026)
- Índice de Precios de Consumo e IPC Armonizado (Consumer Price Index and Harmonised CPI), September 2026, press release (INE, National Statistics Institute, 14 October 2026)
- Resolution of 1 October 2026 of the Banco de España publishing certain official mortgage market reference rates (BOE, Official State Gazette, 2 October 2026)
- 12-month Euribor in 2026, monthly history (euribor.com.es, consulted on 20 October 2026)
- The 12-month EURIBOR (official mortgage market reference rate) stood at 2.172% in September (Banco de España, 1 October 2025)
- Hipotecas sobre viviendas (Home mortgages), July 2026, press release (INE, National Statistics Institute, 28 September 2026)
- Home sales record seven consecutive months of decline in July, data from the Consejo General del Notariado (General Council of Notaries) (Alimarket, 30 September 2026)
- ECB expected to pause in October before raising rates in December, Reuters poll (FXStreet, 8 October 2026)
- Next ECB meeting: date, interest rates and what to expect (Rankia, updated on 10 September 2026)
- Madrid home prices in September 2026: figures and most expensive neighbourhoods (idealista/news, 2 October 2026)